太田述正コラム#3301(2009.5.28)
<北朝鮮の2度目の核実験をめぐって(続)>(2009.7.5公開)

1 始めに

 表記について、前回同様、典拠を翻訳しない形で英米の主要メディアの論調を紹介させていただきます。

A:http://newsweek.washingtonpost.com/postglobal/pomfretschina/2009/05/can_china_really_do_more_with.html?hpid=talkbox1
B:http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/05/27/AR2009052701060_pf.html
C:http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/05/27/AR2009052702353_pf.html
D:(http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/05/27/AR2009052703706_pf.html
E:http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/05/27/AR2009052703231_pf.html
F:http://thelede.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/05/27/north-koreas-subdued-celebrations/?ref=world
G:http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/28/world/asia/28seoul.html?ref=world&pagewanted=print
H:http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/28/world/asia/28korea.html?pagewanted=print
http://features.csmonitor.com/globalnews/2009/05/27/can-moscow-stop-north-koreas-nuclear-march/
I:http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-china-korea27-2009may27,0,1090119,print.story

2 論調

 (1)中共は北朝鮮の庇護者であり続けてきた

 中共がどのように北朝鮮の庇護者であり続けてきたかは、下掲の記事↓で良く分かります。

 ・・・Nicholas Eberstadt, an economist with the American Enterprise Institute, recently analyzed North Korea's trade imbalance with China and concluded that Beijing's support to Pyongyang has in effect quadrupled since 2004.・・・
 "When has China ever had a better situation on the Korean peninsula? They have the southern side with their investment and technical know-how building a more prosperous China, and a socialist buffer zone in the north. It's perfect," Eberstadt said.・・・
 U.S. officials say China twice cut off oil supplies to North Korea, in 2003 and 2006-'07, to ratchet up pressure. It also cooperated by scrutinizing bank accounts when the U.S. Treasury went after Macao-based Banco Delta Asia in 2007 in reaction to North Korea's improper use of the international banking system.・・・ China has at times permitted North Korean agents to hunt down defectors on its territory. And when a North Korean patrol in March seized two American journalists who had wandered too close to the border from Chinese soil, Beijing didn't protest. The two are still being held.(I)

 (2)その中共はどうするか

 だから、中共は今回も実質的には何もしないだろう、という論調も皆無ではありません。
 下掲のコラム↓の論者は、中共としては北朝鮮の体制崩壊を絶対に避けたいはずだとし、難民の大量流入、人民解放軍を投入した場合の韓国軍や米軍と不測の事態の出来、韓国から中共への投資の(統一後の)朝鮮半島北部への振り替え、経済植民地としての北朝鮮の喪失、自由民主主義陣営との間の緩衝地帯の喪失、北朝鮮との国境地帯に居住する朝鮮族の大朝鮮圏志向浮上の可能性をその理由としてあげています。
 こんなことになるよりは、核武装した北朝鮮が存続する方がまだマシだ、というわけです。

 ・・・First, about 2 million people will rush into China's northeast as refugees. Not fun - and a huge tax on China's already poor infrastructure. (An estimated 250,000 North Korean refugees already move back and forth between the two countries.)
 Second, China will be faced with a tough decision: dispatch the PLA into North Korea? What happens if the PLA meets up with the South Korean or U.S. armies heading north?
 Third, remember all that South Korean investment in China? We're talking billions. It would all go home, into building a united country. (China is South Korea's biggest trading partner, by the way.)
 Fourth, a North Korean collapse means that China can forget about turning North Korea into an economic vassal state. (Talk to any South Korean interested in investing in North Korea. Any mine or industrial facility with any prospects of a profit is already a target of Chinese investment.) If Kim collapses, China's firms are going to lose out to the Korean brothers from the south.
 Fifth, how would a united Korean peninsula change China's geopolitical position? It definitely wouldn't help it. Right now, Beijing has an (admittedly wacky) Commie buffer state on their border. But at least it's Commie. With a democratic, capitalist, united Korean peninsula, China loses out. (One of the under-reported stories in China is the depth of South Korea's cultural influence in China. In the West, we like to think that China's youth are "Westernized" or even "Americanized." The reality is that they're "South Koreanized." That formulation is definitely unwieldy, but it's closer to the truth.)
 Six<th>, China's ethnic Korean population along North Korea's border is not known for being restive. But what happens to those folks once the Korean peninsula is united? Greater Korea, anyone?・・・
 if given the choice between a nuclear-armed North Korea and no North Korea at all, Beijing will go with the latter.・・・(A)

 しかし、そうではなく、中共が今回は本格的な経済制裁に乗り出す可能性が大いにある、という見方が有力です。
 その根拠としては、下掲の記事↓のように、中共の国際政治学者が百花斉放的に中共はどうすべきかについて外国のメディアに語り始めており、これらの意見の中で、従来の何もしないスタンスを維持すべきだとするものは半分にとどまり、経済制裁だけでなく、軍事的制裁の必要性に言及する意見さえあることです。

 ・・・Since North Korea conducted a second underground nuclear test on Monday and fired five short-range missiles into the waters off its east coast on Monday and Tuesday, academics at Chinese think tanks and other research centers affiliated with the Chinese government have begun to discuss publicly what had previously been unthinkable: cutting off food or fuel aid to North Korea and supporting other harsh sanctions at the United Nations.
 North Korean leader Kim Jong Il has "gone too far," said Zhang Liangui, a professor at the Institute of Strategy at the Central Party School in Beijing.
 "The nuclear test conducted by North Korea offended the core interests of China," Zhang said in an interview. "Since Kim Jong Il doesn't attach importance to China, it's hard to say if China will continue to keep a friendly relationship with North Korea in the future."
 The United States has long sought help from China, North Korea's largest trading partner, in pressuring North Korea's reclusive leaders to give up their nuclear ambitions. But China has tried to win North Korea's cooperation through favors, such as construction of a glass factory, and has blocked sanctions pushed by Washington. The United States failed to win tougher international penalties after North Korea's first nuclear test, in 2006, in part because of Chinese resistance.
 U.S. officials say they sense a different tone in China's response this time. But China has not yet made clear what position it will take in the U.N. Security Council・・・
  ・・・some Chinese analysts said the U.N. resolution could take aim at North Korea's military.
 The events of the past few days are probably "the most serious crisis since China and North Korea set up diplomatic relations," Zhang said. "Without military sanctions, North Korea is afraid of nothing. So, this time, military sanctions should be regarded as one option." ・・・
 ・・・the Global Times, which has close ties to the Chinese Communist Party, said this week that it had surveyed 20 international relations experts in China and that half supported tough sanctions. ・・・
 Liu Jiangyong, a professor of Northeast Asia studies at Tsinghua University, predicts no real change in China's policy. If China joins other nations in coming down harshly on North Korea, he said, "the role of China will be changed from a contact man to the enemy of North Korea." It is in everybody's interest for China to keep a steady relationship with North Korea, he added, because otherwise no country will have regular contact with Pyongyang. (C)

 (3)ロシアはどうするか

 ロシアはソ連当時から、北朝鮮に対して大きな影響力は持っていなかったところ、現在は影響力はほとんどゼロであるというのが、ロシアにおける有識者の意見です↓。

 ・・・“In fact even the Soviet Union didn’t have much influence there, and neither did China. The North Koreans effectively played off Moscow against Beijing,” says Ivan Zakharchenko, an analyst with the official RIA-Novosti news agency in Moscow.
 But Russia’s relations with North Korea still looked substantial as recently as 2001, when Kim Jong Il rode his armored train to Moscow, where he was feted and treated like an important partner by then-President Vladimir Putin.
 Today, Russia maintains almost no trade with Pyongyang, and its once-vaunted diplomatic pull has shriveled to virtually nil, say Russian experts.・・・(I)

 そこで、このところロシアは、中共の驥尾に付す形で北朝鮮に対応して来たわけですが、ロシアは、今回の北朝鮮による核実験に強い懸念を抱いており、積極的に中共に対し、北朝鮮に強く出るように促すだろうと考えられています↓。

 ・・・"The reaction <of Russia> has been quite serious and quite unusual," said Alexander Pikayev, a top arms control expert at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations here. "Moscow is really concerned. North Korea most likely has an operational deterrent now with this successful test. So this changes the whole situation."
 Pikayev said the Kremlin generally defers to China on how to manage North Korea because it recognizes that Beijing has greater leverage over Pyongyang. But the government now appears to favor tougher sanctions, he said, and "might try to convince the Chinese to take more serious actions." ・・・
 "You can see some shift in policy perhaps, but I think Russia is simply following China," he said. "Russia just doesn't have the tools to influence North Korea." (E)

 (4)韓国の世論

 韓国世論は、下掲↓の記事のように、一挙に反北朝鮮、親米へとふれた、という論調がもっぱらです。
 ・・・“There has been a paradigm shift in how South Koreans view North Korea,” said Jeung Young-tai, a North Korea expert at the Korea Institute for National Unification. “The nuclear test has made people feel that North Korea has gone too far, and it’s high time for us to be tough on North Korea.”・・・
 Such a shift may bring South Korea closer in many ways to Washington. A sign came Tuesday, when President Lee Myung-bak announced that South Korea would belatedly join the Proliferation Security Initiative, an American-led program・・・
 While conservatives have always taken a hard line toward the North, many on the left who supported the sunshine policy also say they are fed up with the North Koreans.・・・
 Mr. Roh had pursued friendly engagement with the North, and many of those who mourned him at makeshift altars on Wednesday expressed anger at the North over the nuclear test, which they called an unforgivable show of callous disregard.・・・(G)

 確かに、韓国の左派世論までが完全に反北朝鮮化したことは注目すべきですが、PSIへの参加をもって韓国世論が親米へとふれた証拠とするのはいかがなものでしょうか。
 コラム#はあげませんが、私はかなり前から韓国世論は、反北朝鮮、親日へと舵を切ったのであって、その反米基調に変化はない、と見ているところです。
 というのは、北朝鮮という鬼子が出現したのは、戦前の米国の有色人種差別的な歪んだ東アジア政策の結果日本帝国が滅ぼされたからであり、その責任は一義的に米国にあることに韓国の人々が気付いていないはずがない、と思うからです。
 朝鮮戦争も、抑圧と飢餓の金王朝も、その金王朝による現在の核や戦争の脅威も、すべては、明治維新以来、ロシア(ソ連)の防波堤の役割を担ってきた日本の脚を、あろうことか、ファシズム勢力や共産主義勢力とつるんで、後ろから払って倒すという取り返しの付かない愚行を米国が行ったためだ、ということです。
 
 (5)朝鮮半島における軍事紛争勃発の可能性

 北朝鮮の脅しにもかかわらず、朝鮮半島西部沿岸で小競り合いが起きるのがせいぜいのところであるとの見方がもっぱらです↓。

 ・・・The North also said it would not respect the legal status of five islands on the South's side of the line. Two naval clashes occurred in that area in 1999 and 2002, killing six sailors from South Korea and more than 30 from North Korea. In those skirmishes, North Korea was badly outgunned by the South's more modern weapons. ・・・
 About 28,500 U.S. troops are in South Korea.
 Analysts in Seoul said they regarded North Korea's warnings as serious but doubted the willingness of Kim to provoke a large-scale confrontation.
 "The problem is that both sides cannot afford to make a concession," said Dong Yong-seung, a senior fellow at the North Korean division of Samsung Economic Research Institute. "It is like a game of chicken."
 Andrei Lankov, a professor at Seoul's Kookmin University who has written several books about North Korea, said, "Small-scale shooting is possible and even probable, but nothing more serious than that."
 "The location of mansions where Pyongyang's leaders enjoy their Hennessy cognac is well known to the American military, and North Koreans know the precision of U.S. cruise missiles," Lankov said. "The North will steer clear of any action which might lead to a real confrontation." (B)

 (6)北朝鮮国内の様子

 北朝鮮国内のムードは沈鬱なものがある、と報じられています↓。

 ・・・If there’s one thing North Korea is usually very good at, it is staging spectacular mass rallies. So why do the North Korean functionaries who gathered, according to the country’s official news agency, “to celebrate the second successful nuclear test,” look so somber? The North Korean news agency tells us that this “meeting of Pyongyangites,” heard a patriotic speech about how the population is filled with “faith and optimism,” after the resumption of nuclear testing, but it is hard to see that in these scenes of leading members of the party and military nervously shifting in their seats or looking impassive as the camera turns their way.
 In a blog post for Britain’s Channel 4 News, Jonathan Miller noted that the state news agency claimed the same day: “Our army and people are fully ready for battle.” This video at least suggests that the mood in Pyongyang is less than joyous at the prospect of war.(F)

 (7)パキスタンの核が一番心配な米国

 核問題で米国を悩ましているのはイランの核開発計画、及びパキスタンが保有する核、という2つの問題です。
 とりわけ、パキスタンの核がイスラム過激派に核ジャックされるのではないか、と米国は本当に心配しています↓。

 ・・・U.S. and allied officials and experts who have tracked developments in South Asia have grown increasingly worried over the rapid growth of the region's more mature nuclear programs, in part because of the risk that weapons could fall into the hands of terrorists. ・・・
 ・・・the expected completion next year of Pakistan's second heavy-water reactor at its Khushab nuclear complex 100 miles southwest of Islamabad, which will produce new spent nuclear fuel containing plutonium for use in nuclear arms. ・・・
 it took them roughly 10 years to double the number of nuclear weapons from roughly 50 to 100." A third heavy-water reactor is also under construction at Khushab, ・・・
 Before it can be used in weaponry, the plutonium must first be separated from the fuel rods at a highly guarded nuclear facility near Rawalpindi, about 100 miles northeast of Khushab. Satellite images published by Albright's institute show a substantial expansion occurred at the complex between 2002 and 2006, reflecting a long-standing Pakistani desire to replace weapons fueled by enriched uranium with plutonium-based weapons. ・・・
 U.S. officials have said they accept Pakistan's assurances that its nuclear stockpile is adequately safeguarded, but intelligence officials have acknowledged contingency plans to dispatch American troops to protect or remove any weapons at imminent risk. ・・・(D)

 (8)日本は何をさせられているのか

 わが属国日本は、核問題だけでもパキスタンやイランで手一杯の宗主国、米国の手足となって、北朝鮮に対する国連決議案の素案作りに汗をかかされているようです↓。

 ・・・At the United Nations, the United States and Japan were drawing up a rough draft of a Security Council resolution・・・(H)

3 終わりに

 核実験直後の観測とは違って、中共とロシアも強い対北朝鮮経済制裁措置を盛り込んだ安保理決議の採択に首を縦に振る可能性が出てきました。
 北朝鮮は、韓国海軍相手の小競り合いをほぼ間違いなく起こすであろうこともこれあり、このような安保理決議が採択されれば、北朝鮮は完全に孤立化することになるでしょう。
 それが北朝鮮の体制変革へとつながる契機になることを、願ってやみません。